Going from Zero's to Hero's

The days of looking for the Triandos Lukes, the Darius Watts and the Charlie Adams of the world are over.  Bronco fans would know those names, these are names of players that were drafted by Mike Shanahan that never panned out at Wide Receiver.  In recent memory, Shanahan lucked out with the drafting of Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal.  They have since moved on. 

Josh McD moved in and did do Denver a favor.  He drafted Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker.  Up to this point, the two have inconsistent in their first two years in the league.  They have shown glimpses of stardom as well as moments that leaves you scratching your asking "how did you not make that catch!"

Well, the two players have some work to do prove themselves, but this is the year that both players will break out and the Broncos will have a talented tandem like they did in 2008 with Marshall and Royal, where the two combined for almost 200 catches.

Demaryius Thomas has all the physical tools to be every bit as good as Marshall, they are almost the same physical specimen, standing at over 6'3" and around 230 pounds and both running in the 4.5's for their 40 yard dash.  Most recent example of Thomas' ability is the longest catch made in post-season history in which Thomas caught the 80 yard game winning touchdown against the Pittsburgh Steelers last season.

Then we also have Eric Decker, possession receiver that has the ability at times to put in second gear and rack up the YAC (yards after catch) at times.  He showed these abilities in college while playing at the University of Minnesota, but his biggest problem coming into the NFL was whether he would be durable. Decker was coming off a lower leg injury   He struggled to catch on with the offense his first season in the NFL, but there was also no doubt that this kid could play.  Th Broncos were just waiting for him to be able, like all rookies and other young players, to adapt to the speed of the game.

Last season, both players had the pleasure of playing with Tim Tebow as their QB.  Their numbers were down and too many times did we see the two guys drop catches.  Sometimes it could have been blamed on Tebow for under or over throwing his receivers, but there was times as well when Tebow also put the ball right between the numbers and the ball would be dropped.

Last season, Thomas and Decker had some alarming numbers pop up.  Thomas dropped 13.51% of his passes going his way, while Decker was good for 16.98%.  These are some of the worst rates in the NFL.  Granted that, yes, not very many passes came their way so any few passes dropped would result in a big jump in the percentage.  But one dropped pass is one dropped pass too many.

Enter Peyton Manning and his work ethic.  He has come into Denver and changed the culture from day 1.  The mentality has completely changed with the locker room, reinventing the idea on what it takes to be winners at the end of the day.  During the offseason, the Denver Post had reported that Manning and Decker, along with a few other fellow Bronco players met up at a local high school to build chemistry to be on the same page from the get go.  It appears that is happening with the two already in the early stages of training camp.  In the first day of full pads, the Denver Post was able to see some of the action take place and this is what they saw in the rapport between Manning and Decker

"In the first day in full pads, it was still a skill position player who put on a show. Wide receiver Eric Decker showed that the extra work he did with quarterback Peyton Manning in the offseason is paying off, with two of the best plays of the day. In one-on-one drills, Decker got a step on star corner Champ Bailey, and bobbled a deep pass from Manning before making a diving catch. Later, in team drills, Decker caught another deep pass from Manning, this one on the right sideline. He was pushed out of bounds after a long gain."

Thomas this offseason rededicated himself as well, being drafted in the first round, he wants to prove that he is worth the pick.  In doing so, he spent time working out with fellow Georgia Tech standout and All-Pro Wideout Calvin Johnson.  Having been a player that has understood that his game needed work, including his technique as a wide receiver and route running.  Thomas had came out and said that he needed to improve.  During his first couple years, he admitted that he was just asked essentially to run "GO" routes up the sideline and try to beat the defender down the field.  With Manning in house, that sort of play will not fly.  We know that with Manning that if you start to slack in your game, he will have no problem going to the next guy to throw to, just look at the players that were pulled in over the years aside from Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison and Brandon Stokley that caught passes from Manning.
 
Knowing how wide receivers act, the two should be ecstatic due to the fact that they have QB that can get the ball to the, meaning more numbers on the stat sheet, and more numbers in contract talks.  Having said that, I want to introduce you to the next "Marvin Harrison" and "Reggie Wayne" in Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas.

In a Very Crazy Offseason, the Nuggets have been Quiet

The West continues to improve, the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.  The Lakers have brought in Steve Nash and are working to get Dwight Howard, regardless of whether he resigns with the team after the season or not.  The Thunder brought in depth in the low-post with the signing of Hasheem Thabeet.  The L.A. Clippers front office finally figured out how to manage a professional team and have made solid signings to go on the bench in Grant Hill and Lamar Odom.  Memphis is still a dangerous team even with the loss of shooting guard O.J. Mayo.  Dallas will be back in the hunt next season assuming that one of three with Elton Brand, Chris Kaman and O.J. Mayo pan out.  The rest of the teams in the west can't seem to hold on to their good players and are going south right now.

Then there is the Denver Nuggets.  Since the Carmelo trade, the Nuggets have been well above .500 (56-35).  They have been a good regular season team and have continued to develop young players such as Ty Lawson and Danilo Gallinari to be the future faces of the franchise.  But since the trade, they have been oust out of the playoffs in the first round, some thing that Denver has become very familiar with, having advanced beyond the first round only once since 2003. 

The Nuggets did just come off a very entertaining series with the Lakers in which the series went the full distance of seven games.  Nugget fans will argue that their team should have won that series and Laker fans will argue that Denver should have never been able to take it to seven games. 

We did see some players for the Nuggets make a name for themselves in this playoff run, such as JaVale McGee.  McGee emerged, he was good for just under 11 points and rebounds per a game and chipping in three block shots per a game as well. 

The Nuggets went into this offseason with only a couple of players that were free agents, most notably guard Andre Miller and McGee.  Miller re-up'ed with the Nuggets with a three year deal while they looked to fortify the front court with the massive signing of a 4 year/44 mil. dollar deal with McGee and recently signed PF Anthony Randolph to a deal.  This was a bad signing and this just reflects teams willing to keep a big off the market.  Denver has done this in the past with most notably Chris "The Birdman" Anderson and Nene Hilario.  Denver has done this again with McGee and are paying to keep another big of the street and are paying for "the potential to be a 'big player'".

The Nuggets in theory haven't done much to make themselves a dangerous team moving forward.  Other than signing Rudolph, they have been quiet to say the least.  The Nuggets needed a solid run to end the regular season to get into the playoffs as a six seed.  Yes, the playoffs is a "new" season and anything can happen, but we have seen it with this team.  Lots of "good" players, but the one thing this team lacks that makes the difference from being a mirror image of the 2000's Minnesota Timberwolves and team contending for a title is a player with the "killer instinct".

For the Nuggets, Carmelo Anthony was that guy, he wasn't afraid to take the last shot.  He may have had some plenty of flaws as a player, and he would not fit in with this current squad and style of play under Karl.  But the one thing that would fit into this team is his will to take over a game and have "ice running through his veins" during the last five to six minutes of a game.

The Nuggets currently are lacking the player to take control of a game on a consistent basis.  We have seen Lawson at times own games in the fourth quarter, we have seen Galinari and Wilson Chandler do it as well.  But it does happen to few and far between for this team to be a threat on a nightly basis. 

Denver had been in talks to trade Chandler and their first round pick to move up into lottery territory with this past NBA Draft.  Should Denver had done so, rumor had been spreading around that they were eyeing UConn Center Andre Drummond.  Just given how frequent draft picks actually seem to work out and how teams overpay for a premium, Denver might have been better off trading Wilson and a pick to get the center and hope he pans out.  Instead, Denver stood still and let the draft come to them and drafted guard Evan Fourier from France.  The European talent is a real crap shoot and seems to be more a gamble than taking a high school here in the states. 

But, having said all that, many experts would agree that the Nuggets may have the best 12 man squad in the NBA.  If the Nuggets now had to pair their starting 5 against any team in the west, the Lakers, Clippers, Mav's, Thunder and Grizzlies would be better than the Nuggets. 

The top teams in the west have either reloaded or upgraded to try and take down the defending western conference champs in the Oklahoma City Thunder.  But with the recent moves made by other teams, and the Nuggets actions to stand pat could back fire.  The Nuggets may be hoping that staying under the luxury tax and trying to develop talent while other teams spend big money to upgrade their rosters don't work out.  But if these moves going down in the west do appear to work out, Denver could be fighting again to get into the sixth slot of the playoffs, and another first round exit...or even worse...a season ending in late April and the Nuggets missing the playoffs for the first time since 2003.

Players That Need to Be Ready for Camp...Are Far From Ready

With training camp right around the corner, a couple draft picks remain unsigned, arguably the more important of all draft picks.  QB Brock Osweiler and RB Ronnie Hillman still so this day could not participate in training camp if it were to start today.  Given the new rules of the CBA and the structure of the rookie contracts, they should be in fairly quick.

But what if they do take a holdout (which the CBA was supposed to prevent rookies from doing) into training camp.  In the past, missing camp in any fashion as a rookie has proved to be detrimental to the development for a rookie coming into the league.  For example, Demaryius Thomas was the most recent, but due to injury he missed out on his rookie training camp, and we saw how it took him almost the entire season to build, learn and be at a level to be competitive in the NFL.  Should he had been able to practice all the way through, his rookie season may have been different.

Currently, Osweiler and Hillman both are in danger of missing time, and they are key players into the development of this new Bronco squad and the teams advancement from the wildcard round of the playoffs to possible Super Bowl birth.

First off Osweiler.  Players are saying that QB Peyton Manning is looking more and more like the Manning of old, but insurance is always nice to have.  Manning may look good in helmet and short, but what about when he sees his first real action in over a year.  If he goes down, the other backups Calib Hanie and Adam Weber.  Hanie played in mop up duty behind Cutler and did get a chance to play in several games while Cutler was out due to injury.  He didn't do much to justify that he is a solid number 2 option.  Adam Weber was a practice squad player/emergency QB last season.  Osweiler being hailed as the heir apparent to Manning, every minute for him to be around Peyton is priceless.  There isn't a word to describe how important that it is he gets into camp.

Second is Hillman.  There may be a logjam at RB, a position that includes 1,199 yards on the ground and team high in yards, Willis McGehee.  There is also Knowshon Moreno, Lance Ball, Jeremiah Johnson, Mario Fannin and Xavier Omon.  I the Broncos to carry three backs on gameday and one of the these guys will be on the practice squad.  Look for Hillman, McGehee and Johnson to be your active backs on Sundays.  But given the change of offense for the Broncos, of all the backs that fit the new offense with Manning making full use of the RB, Hillman fits the bill. Coming out of San Diego St., his size and big play ability, some analysts compare him to Marshall Faulk.  That says a lot about his ability, and having him in learning the offense, the pace at which Manning likes to play, and to learn plays away from the ball, such as picking up blitzes and reading coverages is important.  Not to mention that he is counted on to be the "Flavor of the Month" for the Broncos once McGehee hits the wall with his age.

Yes, there is time for these kids to get in, but the Broncos just need to be prepared.  For one reason or another, they need to be able to cover their bases in at every level of the roster, from Manning all the way down to the 53rd man on the roster.

Lofty Expectations Setting Bronco Fans Up for Major Let Down

Sure, the Denver Broncos have had an amazing and wild off-season, dealing with QB Peyton Manning, then dealing with QB Tim Tebow, then dealing with Manning AND Tebow for a short time.  Bronco fans have every reason to be excited and to have images in their mind of Manning, Elway and Owner Pat Bowlen up on the stage February 2, 2013 at Metlife Stadium, hoisting the Lombardi trophy.

Well, I hate to be the bear of bad news and bring fans back down from cloud 9, but it isn't going to happen.  Even months after he is gone, we still mention Tebow and the Broncos in the same sentence.  The Broncos wouldn't have been an attractive location for Manning had Tebow not had a couple 4th quarter comebacks and the thrilling victory in the playoffs against the battered Pittsburgh Steelers.  Without Tebow's work, the Broncos are a 6-10 team and appearing to be still in complete rebuild mode.

The Broncos are now on the upswing and some experts are talking about the Broncos in the same breath as the New England Patriots, the Baltimore Ravens, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Houston Texans.  But in all reality, the team has more question marks than answers going into training camp and the 2012 season. Obviously, having a legitimate training camp and off-season will benefit the team, but this is a young, raw and inexperienced team.

The biggest question mark was Manning and his health, reports have come out that he is healed and that it's just a matter of getting into football shape.  But what if Manning takes a hard shot week one against the LB James Harrison and the Steelers, the Broncos will have to go to backup QB Caleb Hanie, who at his best in relief of CHI QB Jay Cutler posted a 79.9 QB rating, and that was against the Broncos and their weak secondary.  His TD-INT ratio is 1-3....not comforting going forward.  Bronco fans best pray that this doesn't happen.

The offensive line is a major work in progress.  Ryan Clady has regressed since his stellar rookie season, JD Walton and Zane Beadles both have a nasty attitude to their game, but their game itself is childish.  When they get locked up with a D-Lineman that has multiple moves, they are going to struggle in pass protection.  Same with Orlando Franklin, outstanding run-blocker, but his pass protection need much more work.  The Broncos did bring in a former player in Ryan Harris who used to play Franklin's position.  But he was brought in to replace a solid lineman in Chris Kuper, but he is coming off a major leg injury.  The Broncos would be wise to move Harris to the RT position and keep on building up Franklin.

Willis McGehee benefited the most having the Option Read offense around, he was able to prolong his career, just as he did as a backup ton Baltimore.  Now, he will be the feature back, first time since 2007.  He did defy odd with his age at 30, posting 1,199 yards on the ground.  But history will also say that McGehee will come back down to earth.  They have Lance Ball, who is a Josh McD holdover that hasn't been impressive, Jeremiah Johnson has shown flashes to be a good third down back, Mario Fannin is coming off a ACL injury, no guarantee that he makes the club, along with Knowshon Moreno for the same reason, he has been VERY inconsistent as a RB being a first rounder.  There is high hopes on third round pick Ronnie Hillman, but he has yet to sign and camp is several weeks away.  Fannin and Moreno will be gone, and with age and inexperience, the running will be BOON OR BUST.

The Wide Receivers led by Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker showed glimpses, but now it's time for them to grow up quick, fast and in a hurry playing with Manning.  Even playing with a QB in Orton that was suited for a Pro Style offense, neither really showed anything promising, playing with Tebow, the guys just went out and played football, Tebows indecisiveness lasted longer than it would take to lick and get to the center of the Tootsie Pop!  Now with Manning, they have to run routes....something that Demaryius has admitted to having NOT done since he has got to Denver.

Luckily for Manning, the Broncos did go out and sign a couple very solid Tight Ends in Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen.

The Broncos are rolling the dice on the D-Line.  They will most likely go with Justin Bannan and Kevin Vickerson on the inside.  Vickerson has been a good pickup, and surprisingly the team brought back Bannan.  When Fox came in, he let go of Bannan cause he didn't think he would fit his system, I see him more of as a "bandage" for the time being.  The depth behind these guys is a mix of guys that may have never played a down in the league before or are past their prime.  The ends are in acceptable position.  No need to discuss Elvis Dumervil, but with Robert Ayers on the other side, he's essentially John Engelberger.  a DE that can hold the edge at times on the run but lacks power or moves to get around the Tackle.

Linebackers, led by Rookie Phenom Von Miller is questionable.  Von Miller will continue to improve and I expect him to be like what Elway said when he drafted him....the next Derrick Thomas.  But how much longer will the team keep putting up with DJ Williams and his antics, a recent citing for a DUI and now serving a 6 game suspension for failed drug tests, behind him is Wesley Woodyard, who lacks size to be a force in the running game.  Then theres undrafted rookie Danny Trevathan, I am curious to see what this kid can do.  Joe Mays makes big plays that would show up on NFL Films "Biggest Hitters", but as a Middle Linebacker, he's average at best, the team had hoped that Nate Irving would change him last season, but that didn't happen, and now there is hopes that he does take the job from him.  If he doesn't, I would not be shocked to see the Broncos draft a MLB on day two or go after someone in free agency.

The secondary is completely revamped.  Led by a seasoned veteran, but still dominant Champ Bailey, he will get help this season with Tracy Porter and Drayton Florance.  Offenses will have trouble now spreading our secondary compared to last season in which the Patriots figured out by matching their Tight Ends on our nickle and dime backs and just "using and abusing" the seconday....in both the regular and postseason.  Mike Adams was a name that not very many people would know, but this guy is a very solid signing at a low cost.  The team holds out hope the Rahim Moore will still recover mentally from the vicious hit he put on Buffalo Bill WR Donald Jones in preseason.  Should he not, the team is prepared to move onto Quinton Carter.

Having said all this, there is more questions than answers.  Manning can cover up for a lot of those flaws, apparent in Indy this past season.  The 2010 Colts team essentially the same squad in 2011, the team went from 10-6 to 2-14.  The Broncos are definitely not in the same situation, but they must be prepared for life after Manning, even before it starts.  The Manning Era could last five weeks or five seasons, in either case, the Broncos need to make plans for any situation, or they can fall back into the abyss that they were in with Josh McD and Kyle Orton.

Faith and Loyalty is Holding the Rockies Back

The Colorado Rockies right now are on the verge of having their worse season based on win percentage.  As of July 4th, the team enters the day at 31-49...a .388 win percentage.  Even in their worst years has the team never experienced this horrid of a season.  This team had lofty expectations of at the very least competing for the NL Wildcard.  Due to injury and VERY questionable moves, the team now is in the basement of the MLB and decisions being made by Manager Jim Tracy are being questioned by Rockies fans.

The pitching staff has been down right atrocious from the get go.  In the offseason, the Rockies let Roy Oswalt get passed them, then they proceeded to trade Jason Hammel to the Baltimore Orioles for Jeremy Gutherie.  His last season with the Rox, Hammel did have a drop off in the number of strikeouts he produced, and did give up timely runs to the opposition.  But to his defense, his numbers across the broad show that he was consistent, he gave quality starts as the 5th starter in the rotation but never received much run support as well.  As a result, the Rox shipped him off to the O's and in return get a pitcher in Gutherie who would be a innings eater and should blossom because he would be out of the shadows of the Rays, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Yankees.

Hammel as of today is 8-4 with a career best 3.43 ERA and pitching for a first place team and in the All-Star game.  Gutherie avoid arbitration with the Rox, gets a one year deal worth over 8 million dollars, he's 3-7 on the season with a 6.56 ERA and a BAA of .327...good move in my books.  For all that Hammel did for the Rox, they could have showed him some faith and loyalty for a somewhat down year and gave him another year with the club.

As a result, the pitching staff is dead last in ERA, quality starts, WHIP and batting average.  The situation is so bad that long time pitching coach Bob Apodaca asked to be reassigned, and now the Rockies are going against the grain by using a 4 man rotation, and may continue to do so going into the future.

Aside from Gutherie and recently acquired Drew Promeranz and Alex White, the Rox have had too much luck, but they hold on to their faith in that their farm system will work out for them.  Since the overpaid and questionable signings of Denny Neagle and Mike Hampton, the Rox went low-ball with their business model and hoped that "GEN R" would produce.  It did, but that was your everyday players that broke through for the team.  In 2007 and 2009, the only pitchers that came through the farm system for the Rox were Aaron Cook, Jeff Francis and Ubaldo Jimenez.  

Their faith in their farm system has come back to get the Rockies in the rear and in doing so, the club now dipping into the Double-A ranks and promoting up to the big leagues in hopes that they can catch lightning in  a bottle, there isn't much for the club to go with at for the time being.

Their loyalty has also been a downfall for this ball club.  Lets be honest here, yes he has been the face of the franchise for years and when he retires, he will retire having worn only one jersey.  I'm speaking about Todd Helton.  Yes, he has helped keep the Colorado Rockies name relevant until Matt Holliday and Troy Tulowitzki showed up on the scene.  But his names have dipped dramatically, his age is catching up to him with signs of wear and tear.  His loyalty to the team has been rewarded by the team it self.  The club has tried trading him in the past, but he would veto any trade to stay with the Rox.  So through the years, he was able to call the shots, and he would ultimately decide when he would sit most days whether it would be due to "soreness, tightness, etc."

This loyalty is not helping the Rox in any form, his productivity has gone down.  He hasn't hit more than 20 HR since 2006, has barely produced more than 20 XBH three times since 2008.  He has essentially been reduced to a singles hitter who continues to stay in the heart of the lineup.  Helton will not be around forever, the Rox need to look into the future and have GOT to move Helton (easier said than done, their last best bet to move him would have been in 2009, but due to no-trade clauses in his contract, it will be almost impossible to move him).  Get young guns like Tyler Colvin in the everyday lineup.

Their loyalty also stretches to other fan favorites in the likes of Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez.  CARGO has been a godsend for the club after trading for him in the Matt Holliday trade.  He signed a 7 year worth over 80 million in January 2011.  He has been very productive and his numbers should be close, if not better than his 34 HR, 117 RBI season he had in 2010, and the lone bright spot for the club as he will represent the Rockies going into the All-Star game.  Then there's Tulo.  Yes, his numbers would show that his production hasn't slipped, but it's the things that don't show up on the everyday stat line that should alarm people.  For one, Tulo has multiple times redefined his batting stance to try and get his "groove" back, and in doing so, we see him go on hot streaks and pick his numbers back up.  I still think there is a problem with his mechanics, and that may have something to do with the loss of Don Baylor.  His more productive and constant seasons came under his tutelage.  Now, Tulo's numbers in terms of power has dropped, his AB/HR has gone from 17 to 22 this season.

His fielding has been surprisingly a problem this season.  2011, Tulo committed only 6 errors all season long, and thus far in this season, Tulo has committed 8 errors...in 47 games!  A lot for a multiple Gold Glove Winner.  Yes, don't get me wrong, these are two great players, but I would want to build my team around a player such as Cargo over Tulo.  Rumors had been spread around that the Rox would move Cargo, I would much rather move a guy such as Tulo based of name and reputation to try and acquire as much pitching as possible, if anything a bonefide starter in the second spot of the rotation along with some prospects that you know that can be called up in September to get playing time in the league before the start of the 2013 season.

The problem with all this faith and loyalty that the Monfort Brothers hand out to GM Dan O'Dowd has been the source of the problem for the Rox through the years.  Mismanagement of player signings (Shawn Estes, Jason Marquis to name a couple), letting players walk due disagreement over a few million dollars, making trades in which he thinks he outsmarted the other team in which all reality, he outsmarts himself and comes back to haunt him in the end (GUTHRIE), and making statements that he is disappointed in the teams effort, that the team should and will perform better, that he takes responsibility for the team not performing up to par.  Yet, we continue to see "Dealin Dan" still standing pat and status quo with the ball club.  His "Faith" in this ball club is what is hurting this team, he had no problem moving fan favorites in Matt Holliday and Larry Walker, whats to stop you from moving Helton in the past or Tulo right now to help better this ball club for tomorrow.  There's no sight that this season will get any better, and no reason to believe that going into 2013 will be any different.